CP Saskatchewan¶

At a glance¶


Publication / project partner	A Nuclear Grand Bargain / Clean Prosperity
Analysis period	2026
Question	How Saskatchewan's electricity system develops to 2050 under no additional climate policy, under a Canada-Saskatchewan agreement, and under a net-zero pathway, and what role nuclear plays in each
Linkage	Electricity supply and demand (CIMS-COPPER-SILVER)
Scenarios	Fourteen linkage scenario folders `SK_*` on the `CP_SK` branch, built on three CIMS scenarios
Contact	Aaron Hoyle, aaron@openinsights.ca

Model versions¶

Component	Repository	Branch	Commit	Notes
M3-linkages (runner + linkage scenarios)	https://gitlab.com/sesit/M3-linkages	`CP_SK`	`147a8cb` (2026-09-23)	Single-commit snapshot: the `SK_*` scenario folders plus runner changes.
CIMS (model + scenarios)	https://gitlab.com/sesit/cims-models-fork	`CP_SK`	`ff13cfd1` (2026-09-23)	Single-commit snapshot of the Saskatchewan model files and the three CIMS scenarios.
COPPER	https://gitlab.com/sesit/copper	`lmp_testing_clean`
SILVER	https://gitlab.com/sesit/silver	`dev`
IDEA dashboard	https://gitlab.com/sesit/idea-dash	`main`		Optional, for viewing outputs.

How the three repositories fit together¶

The linkage scenario folder in M3-linkages is the single place where a run is defined, but it treats COPPER and CIMS differently:

COPPER has no scenario of its own. The [Models.COPPER.Config] block in the M3-linkages config.toml is written over COPPER's configuration, and the scenario-specific input files listed under [General.Scenario_Input_Files].COPPER are copied from the linkage scenario folder into COPPER's run. You do not need a matching scenario folder in the COPPER repository.
CIMS keeps its own scenario. The M3-linkages config names a CIMS scenario (base_scenario) that exists, with its own configuration, in the cims-models-fork repository. The [Models.CIMS.Config] block only adjusts the policy flags the linkage passes through.
SILVER is configured from the [Models.SILVER.Config] block in the same way as COPPER.

Scenarios¶

CIMS scenarios (cims-models-fork, branch `CP_SK`)¶

CIMS scenario	Meaning
`CP_SK_No_climate_policy`	No additional climate policy beyond what is in place today
`CP_SK_MOU_succeeds`	The Canada-Saskatchewan memorandum of understanding is implemented
`CP_SK_Net_zero`	A net-zero electricity pathway for Saskatchewan

Linkage scenarios (M3-linkages, branch `CP_SK`)¶

Each row is one folder under scenarios/ on the CP_SK branch. Every folder runs the full CIMS-COPPER-SILVER chain; the columns show what each one changes relative to SK_1. Prices are federal carbon prices in $/t CO2e; capacities are Saskatchewan minimum build requirements passed to COPPER.

Linkage scenario	CIMS scenario	Carbon price 2025 to 2050	OBPS tightening	Saskatchewan nuclear minimum	Saskatchewan wind and solar limit	Coal	Other inputs
`SK_1`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	None	Proportional wind build, 50 %	Refurbishment of 1,140 MW from 2030; 140 MW coal CCS from 2040	Older technology table (`generation_type_data_old.csv`)
`SK_1_rerun`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	None	Proportional wind build, 50 %	As `SK_1`	Adds gas-cogeneration and nuclear refurbishment technologies; `sector_specific_scaling = false`
`SK_1_refurb`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	None	Proportional wind build, 50 %	As `SK_1`	Same inputs as `SK_1_rerun`
`SK_2`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	None	Proportional wind build, 50 %	No minimum
`SK_3`	Net zero	70, 120, then 170; Alberta and Saskatchewan at 0.765 of federal	Faster, to 2050	None	Proportional wind build, 50 %	No minimum	Saskatchewan emissions limit of zero in 2050 (`provincial_carbon_limit.csv`); convergence tolerance 10 %
`SK_4`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	None	Variable-renewable share capped at 15 %; wind and solar capacity caps (`renewable_portfolio_max.csv`)	No minimum
`SK_7`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	None	Share capped at 15 %; wind and solar capacity caps	No minimum
`SK_8`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	None	Share capped at 30 %	No minimum
`SK_9`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	None	Share capped at 40 %	No minimum
`SK_10`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	SMR 300 MW by 2035, 600 MW by 2040; large nuclear 1,000 MW by 2045, 2,000 MW by 2050	Share capped at 30 %; wind and solar capacity caps and floors to 2030	No minimum
`SK_11`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	As `SK_10`	Share capped at 30 %	No minimum
`SK_11_tweak`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050, modified schedule	As `SK_10`	Share capped at 40 %	No minimum
`SK_12`	No climate policy	143 rising to 170	To 2030	As `SK_10`	Share capped at 30 %	No minimum	Config lists renewable portfolio files that are not in the folder
`SK_13`	MOU succeeds	50, 65, 97.5, then 130	Continues to 2050	As `SK_10`	Share capped at 30 %	No minimum

What is varied. The scenarios form three families. The SK_1 family is the no-additional-policy world: the federal carbon price follows its legislated path (143 $/t in 2025, the 2025 to 2029 average, and 170 $/t from 2030), output-based pricing stops tightening after 2030, and COPPER is required to keep Saskatchewan's coal fleet running through refurbishment and a small carbon-capture retrofit. The MOU family (SK_2, SK_7 to SK_9, SK_11, SK_13) represents the Canada-Saskatchewan agreement: a lower carbon price path (50 $/t in 2025 rising to 130 $/t by 2040), output-based pricing that keeps tightening to 2050, and no obligation to keep coal. SK_3 is the net-zero case, with a Saskatchewan emissions limit of zero in 2050, a faster tightening schedule and both Alberta and Saskatchewan paying 0.765 of the federal price.

Within the no-policy and MOU families, two further levers are explored. Wind and solar are constrained either through a cap on the variable-renewable share of Saskatchewan's system (15 %, 30 % or 40 %) or through explicit capacity caps and, in SK_10, floors through 2030. Nuclear is introduced as a minimum build: 300 MW of small modular reactors by 2035 and 600 MW by 2040, then 1,000 MW of large nuclear by 2045 and 2,000 MW by 2050 (SK_10 to SK_13). The _rerun, _refurb and _tweak folders are re-runs of a base case with a refurbishment technology set or an adjusted tightening schedule. Which folders appear in the published report is recorded with the outputs.

Assumptions and data¶

Every assumption below is set in the linkage scenario folder on the CP_SK branch, either in config.toml or in one of the CSV input files it lists. Links point at the SK_1 copy; the other folders carry the same files with the differences shown in the scenario table.

Assumption	Value	Where it is set
Models run and convergence	CIMS, COPPER and SILVER; CIMS-COPPER iterated until provincial electricity prices differ by under 5 % (10 % in `SK_3`)	`config.toml`, `[General]` and `[Models.CIMS.Acceptable_Rate_Difference]`
CIMS scenario	One of the three CIMS scenarios above	`config.toml`, `base_scenario`; scenario definition in cims-models-fork
Output-based pricing applied in CIMS	On	`config.toml`, `[Models.CIMS.Config.Capacity_Expansion_Linkage]`, `OBPS_flag`
Federal Clean Electricity Regulations	Not applied (`CER_flag = false`)	same block
Net-zero flag in CIMS	Off (the net-zero case is expressed through the CIMS scenario and the emissions limit)	same block
Investment tax credits in CIMS	Carbon capture 50 %, clean technology 30 %, clean electricity 15 %	same block, `ITC_*`
Coal phase-out	National phase-out off; province-specific schedule read from file	same block and `provincial_phase_out.csv`
2025 electricity price scaling	CIMS 2025 prices scaled to observed (`2025_price_scaling = true`)	`config.toml`, `[Models.CIMS]`
CIMS results extracted	Saskatchewan only	`config.toml`, `[Models.CIMS.Config.Output_Preferences]`
Federal carbon price	143 $/t (2025) rising to 170 $/t (2030 on); MOU family 50, 65, 97.5, 130; net zero 70, 120, 170	`config.toml`, `[Models.COPPER.Config.Carbon.ctax]`
Provincial carbon price scaling	Alberta 0.4 of federal (0.765 for Alberta and Saskatchewan in `SK_3`)	`config.toml`, `[Models.COPPER.Config.Carbon.ctax_prov]`
Provincial emissions limit	Saskatchewan zero in 2050 (`SK_3` only)	`provincial_carbon_limit.csv`
Output-based pricing standards and tightening	Standards by fuel and region, tightening to 2030 or to 2050 by family	`obps_standards.csv`
Maximum capacity by technology, province and period	For example no nuclear in British Columbia	`max_capacity_limits.csv`
Minimum capacity by technology, province and period	Saskatchewan geothermal 30 MW (2030) to 180 MW (2040 on); coal refurbishment and CCS (`SK_1` family); nuclear (`SK_10` to `SK_13`); British Columbia gas minimums	`min_capacity_limits.csv`
Technology costs and performance	Capital cost, fixed and variable O&M, efficiency, capacity-factor bounds, ITC eligibility by technology	`generation_type_data.csv`
Technology cost evolution	Capital-cost index by technology and period	`price_evolution.csv`
Capacity values	Seasonal capacity credit by technology and province	`capacity_value_winter.csv`, `capacity_value_summer.csv`
Fuel prices and emission factors	Base price and CO2 factor by fuel	`fuel_type_data.csv`
Saskatchewan wind and solar limits	Proportional wind build at 50 % (`SK_1` family, `SK_2`, `SK_3`), or a variable-renewable share cap of 15, 30 or 40 %	`config.toml`, `[Models.COPPER.Config.Electrical_grid]`
Wind and solar capacity caps and floors	Per-period caps (`SK_4`, `SK_7`, `SK_10`) and floors to 2030 (`SK_10`)	`renewable_portfolio_max.csv`, `renewable_portfolio_min.csv`
Generator disaggregation	Saskatchewan, every period 2025 to 2050	`config.toml`, `[Models.COPPER.Config.Disaggregation_Settings]`
Locational marginal prices for renewables, Alberta R30, transmission tax credit	All off	`config.toml`, `[Models.COPPER.Config.Regulations]` and `[...Economics.ITC]`
SILVER dispatch	Copper-plate transmission, no optimal power flow	`config.toml`, `[Models.SILVER.Config]`
CODERS data	Demand and VRE year 2021; API pull off (`use_coders = false`), so CODERS-derived inputs must be present locally	`config.toml`, `[CODERS]`

How to replicate¶

Install the linkage following the CIMS-COPPER-SILVER setup guide, then check out the branches in the table above rather than the runner defaults: console git checkout CP_SK # in M3-linkages git -C dependencies/cims-models-fork checkout CP_SK git -C dependencies/copper checkout lmp_testing_clean git -C dependencies/silver checkout dev
Edit each scenarios/SK_*/config.toml you intend to run: the repo_path and env_name entries are the analyst's cluster paths and environment names and must point at your own checkouts and Conda environments. Set the CODERS api_key to your own key if you switch use_coders on.
Run a scenario: console conda activate m3linkages_env python linkage.py -sc SK_1 On a cluster, use linkage.sh or linkage_batch.sh from the CP_SK branch, which submits several scenarios in sequence.

Outputs¶

Visualisation dashboard coming soon.

Open items¶

[ ] Pin the COPPER and SILVER commits the published runs used.
[ ] Record which SK_* folders appear in the report.